globalmarket(SFC Outlook 2024｜Global Capital Market: There are uncertainties existing in the U.S. market)
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2024-04-04 03:44
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SFC Outlook 2024｜Global Capital Market: There are uncertainties existing in the U.S. market
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点击按住可拖动视频南方财经全媒体记者 杨雨莱 广州报道
In 2023, we wiglobalmarkettnessed a series of dramatic changes in global capital markets. The United States experienced the banking crisis, and the continued increasing interest rates cumulatively by 100 basis points of the whole year. However, the Nasdaq index surged by an impressive 43.42%, setting a new record in the history. What new trends will the global capital markets present in 2024? Would the U.S. stock market maintain its upward momentum? Three economists from renowned institutions provide their interpretations for us.
The IPO market may recover sharply in 2024
SFC Markets and Finance: The Nasdaq is known for technology listings, but in 2023 it is a relatively slow year fglobalmarketor IPO listings, do you think the trend will continue to 2024?
Phil Mackintosh: I don't think so. If you even look at some more granular like month-by-month listings day, you're starting to see companies coming into the market. Some really big listings came through late last year. If you talk to the private equity businesses, there's a lot of investments that they've been holding on for longer than they normally want to. So there's a good pipeline of IPOs ready to come to market people that need some equity market cash. We've got markets close to all-time high, so valuations are holding it back, and volatility is lower. So I think the environment is pretty constructive for the IPO market to come back and be a bit stronger than, hopefully a lot stronger than last year.
SFC Markets and Finance: What reasons do you think that cause 2023 was not a very good year for IPOs?
Phil Mackintosh: I think it's uncertainty, generally. If you look at the bond market with interest rates getting to their peaks, but no one was really sure whether the Fed was completely finished or about to cut. And all of the indicators about consumer spending may be running out of money. There was a lot of uncertainty that we might have a recession. And so that I think it made a lot of companies nervous about coming into the market IPO, if the very next year they'd have a recession to deal with. As the soft landing is more and more likely, I think that's, again, even more constructive to get companies into public markets, which is great for investors, because it offers more growth companies for us to buy and hold on and participate in their growth as well.
Prefer bonds over equity this year
SFC Markets and Finance: You said you prefer bonds to equities in an interview. Why bonds will be more attractive?
Arend Kapteyn: Mainly because we're going to start to reverse the tightening cycle. In level terms, yields are not historically high, but they're certainly back to where they were 15, 20 years ago. The central banks generally perceive themselves to be well above neutral lglobalmarketevels, so as they start to go back towards neutral, the bond yields will decline, and bond prices will rally. As an entry point, the market is already responding to that. But I think that is sort of the most straightforward thing this year, is that when inflation comes down, bonds do well. That's the simplest thing to do this year. If you do anything, that's what you want to do.
And equity, I think it is difficult, in pglobalmarketart because risk premia are so compressed. If you go back in history, and you look at how do equity markets perform in a year when credit spreads are this low, when volatility measures are this low, they generally don't do so well. So equity markets do well when your starting point is very bad and then there's something to recover from. But the starting point in this case, is that things are not so bad, and then it's difficult to sort of do well. So for that reason we prefer this year bonds over equity. But that's really sort of a recommendation for 2024. It's not a medium-term recommendation. It's just the tactical recommendation.
SFC Markets and Finance: The S
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SFC Outlook 2024｜Global Capital Market: There are uncertainties existing in the U.S. market
重播
暂停
00:05 / 10:33 直播
00:00
进入全屏
50
南方财经全媒体记者 杨雨莱 广州报道
In 2023, we wiglobalmarkettnessed a series of dramatic changes in global capital markets. The United States experienced the banking crisis, and the continued increasing interest rates cumulatively by 100 basis points of the whole year. However, the Nasdaq index surged by an impressive 43.42%, setting a new record in the history. What new trends will the global capital markets present in 2024? Would the U.S. stock market maintain its upward momentum? Three economists from renowned institutions provide their interpretations for us.
The IPO market may recover sharply in 2024
SFC Markets and Finance: The Nasdaq is known for technology listings, but in 2023 it is a relatively slow year fglobalmarketor IPO listings, do you think the trend will continue to 2024?
Phil Mackintosh: I don't think so. If you even look at some more granular like month-by-month listings day, you're starting to see companies coming into the market. Some really big listings came through late last year. If you talk to the private equity businesses, there's a lot of investments that they've been holding on for longer than they normally want to. So there's a good pipeline of IPOs ready to come to market people that need some equity market cash. We've got markets close to all-time high, so valuations are holding it back, and volatility is lower. So I think the environment is pretty constructive for the IPO market to come back and be a bit stronger than, hopefully a lot stronger than last year.
SFC Markets and Finance: What reasons do you think that cause 2023 was not a very good year for IPOs?
Phil Mackintosh: I think it's uncertainty, generally. If you look at the bond market with interest rates getting to their peaks, but no one was really sure whether the Fed was completely finished or about to cut. And all of the indicators about consumer spending may be running out of money. There was a lot of uncertainty that we might have a recession. And so that I think it made a lot of companies nervous about coming into the market IPO, if the very next year they'd have a recession to deal with. As the soft landing is more and more likely, I think that's, again, even more constructive to get companies into public markets, which is great for investors, because it offers more growth companies for us to buy and hold on and participate in their growth as well.
Prefer bonds over equity this year
SFC Markets and Finance: You said you prefer bonds to equities in an interview. Why bonds will be more attractive?
Arend Kapteyn: Mainly because we're going to start to reverse the tightening cycle. In level terms, yields are not historically high, but they're certainly back to where they were 15, 20 years ago. The central banks generally perceive themselves to be well above neutral lglobalmarketevels, so as they start to go back towards neutral, the bond yields will decline, and bond prices will rally. As an entry point, the market is already responding to that. But I think that is sort of the most straightforward thing this year, is that when inflation comes down, bonds do well. That's the simplest thing to do this year. If you do anything, that's what you want to do.
And equity, I think it is difficult, in pglobalmarketart because risk premia are so compressed. If you go back in history, and you look at how do equity markets perform in a year when credit spreads are this low, when volatility measures are this low, they generally don't do so well. So equity markets do well when your starting point is very bad and then there's something to recover from. But the starting point in this case, is that things are not so bad, and then it's difficult to sort of do well. So for that reason we prefer this year bonds over equity. But that's really sort of a recommendation for 2024. It's not a medium-term recommendation. It's just the tactical recommendation.
SFC Markets and Finance: The S
本站涵盖的内容、图片、视频等数据系网络收集，部分未能与原作者取得联系。若涉及版权问题，请联系我们进行删除！谢谢大家！